Choose a risk to investigate

Where does the evidence place it?

Position is an evidence-informed facilitator weighting—not an objective fact.

Low severityHigh severity
Speculative · severeAlready here · severeSpeculative · lower harmAlready here · lower harm
AI safety / loss of control
Bioweapon / CBRN uplift
Bias & discrimination
Environmental impact
Learning & academic integrity
Concentration of power
Jobs & the economy
Creative work & the value of human effort
Misinformation & deepfakes
Security & cybercrime
Overreliance & deskilling
Privacy & generative AI
Accuracy & hallucinations
Copyright & intellectual property
Autonomous weapons
Mental health & AI companions
Supply-chain labour exploitation
SpeculativeAlready happening

Risk index

Full analysisComplete topic module
Evidence snapshotsConcise three-page analysis
Original cinematic editorial image of a hyperscale data-centre campus beside power infrastructure and a narrow water channel at blue hour; the left third is dark and open for the module title.

Environmental impact · Risk field note 04

Environmental impact

AI's data-centre demand for power and water may drive or contribute to climate change, strain local water supplies, and cause local energy shortages or overload local distribution systems.
Severity 5Certainty 8contested confidence
01 / 11

Environmental impact · 02 · What we actually know

Measured demand is growing quickly.

01

Electricity: 485 TWh (2025) → 950 TWh by 2030 — 3% of world power

02

Five tech firms' capex now exceeds global oil-and-gas investment

03

Global water consumption: 560 billion L in 2023 → 1.2 trillion L by 2030

04

Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) reports facility water use in L/kWh of IT energy

01
IEA, 2026
02
IEA, 2026
03
IEA, 2025, pp. 242–243
04
Uptime Institute, Apr 2026 · WUE definition
02 / 11

Environmental impact · 02A · Scale in context

Data centre electricity use is small but growing fast

Worldwide electricity use by sector in 2025 — buildings ~45.7%, industry ~40.7%, other uses and system losses ~11.3%, transport ~2.3%; data centres ~1.7% shown as a highlighted subset of Buildings.
IEA sector data · 2024–2025 changes · 2025 total · data centres · IEA analysis · IEA equipment chart
03 / 11

Environmental impact · 02A · Scale in context

Water: globally a rounding error; locally the whole story

Global freshwater withdrawals in 2021 by sector — agriculture 72%, industry 15%, municipal/domestic 13%; data-centre consumption in 2023 is shown separately as an approximately 0.01% order-of-magnitude sliver, not a like-for-like sector share.
UNESCO/UN-Water, 2025, using FAO AQUASTAT data · IEA, 2025
04 / 11

Environmental impact · 03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Consensus

Demand is rising fast, with real local grid and water strain

Genuinely contested

  • Water withdrawal versus consumption
  • New data-centre designs
  • Energy projection challenges
  • Net climate effects
01
IEA, 2026
02
Texas Tribune, 2025 · Microsoft, Dec 2024
05 / 11

Environmental impact · 04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

Three broad views of the environmental risk.

01

Unsustainable-growth viewThe current growth trajectory is environmentally unsustainable.

02

Manageable-footprint viewThe footprint can be contained—and AI may help elsewhere.

03

Place-and-design viewLocal conditions matter more than one global average.

01
IEA, 2025
02
IEA, 2025
03
IEA, 2025, pp. 240–243
06 / 11

Environmental impact · 05 · Public sentiment

Public Opposition is Strong.

01

71% of U.S. adults opposed a local AI data centre — more than opposed a local nuclear plant (53%)

02

Among U.S. adults reporting higher home-energy costs, 43% called data-centre energy use a major reason

03

One tracker reported ~US$130B in projects blocked or delayed in Q1 2026; New York then launched the first active statewide moratorium

01
Gallup, Mar 2026
02
Pew, survey conducted 2026-03-16 to 2026-03-22
03
Data Center Watch, Q1 2026 · NCSL · New York Governor
07 / 11

Environmental impact · 06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Rising compute demand contributes to climate change; local grids hit shortages and distribution overload (higher bills for residents); water depleted in stressed regions; costs externalized to communities

If we handle it well

Demand met by new clean energy + efficiency + closed-loop water; standardized transparent reporting; AI accelerates decarbonization and pays its own footprint

08 / 11

Environmental impact · 07 · What can / should / is being done

Four levers for reducing the environmental cost.

01

Use less energy and water per unit of computing

02

Add clean power and plan grids for concentrated demand

03

Require transparent reporting and assign infrastructure costs

04

Use lighter tools when adequate—and push for systemic change

01
IEA, 2025
02
IEA, 2025
09 / 11

Environmental impact · 08 · Poll + discussion

Poll Questions

01

Place Environmental Impact on the consensus map: How severe is the risk, and how certain is the evidence?

02

Who should bear the main responsibility for AI's environmental cost?

A

the tech companies

B

governments & regulators

C

users like us

D

all of us together

QR code for the Environmental impact poll

Scan to answer both questions

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10 / 11

Environmental impact · Sources

Evidence used in this module.

  • Key questions on energy and AI — executive summary — IEA, 2026 (energy, capex).
  • Energy demand from AI and equipment chart — IEA, 2025 (2024 electricity denominator, accelerated-server proxy and growth).
  • Energy and AI — water use by data centres, pp. 242–243 — IEA, Apr 2025 (global 2023 consumption, 2030 projection, and water-footprint breakdown).
  • World electricity final consumption by sector (public API data) — IEA Energy Statistics Data Browser, latest complete balance 2023 (scale-in-context sector baseline).
  • Average annual change in electricity consumption by sector, 2014–2025 — IEA, 2026 (2024 and 2025 sector increments used in the scale comparison).
  • Electricity 2026 — Demand — IEA, 2026 (28,200 TWh worldwide demand in 2025).
  • Texas data-centre water use could reach 161 billion gallons/yr by 2030 — Houston Advanced Research Center / U. Houston, Jan 2026 (water, Lake Mead).
  • Dry cooling energy performance can rival evaporative cooling and sustainability glossary — Uptime Institute, 2026/2022 (WUE definition and variation by design, climate, and operation).
  • Data center water use — MOST Policy Initiative (methodology, company water figures).
  • Next-generation datacenters consume zero water for cooling — Microsoft, Dec 2024 (closed-loop design and 2026 pilots; company claim).
  • Data centres and Texas water planning — Texas Tribune, 2025 (measurement uncertainty).
  • United Nations World Water Development Report 2025 — UNESCO/UN-Water, using FAO AQUASTAT data (2021 freshwater-withdrawal total and 72%/15%/13% sector shares).
  • Q1 2026 opposition report — Data Center Watch (blocked/delayed projects and opposition footprint).
  • Which states are banning data centers? — NCSL, updated Jul 2026 (15-state bill list and statuses).
  • First statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers — New York Governor, Jul 2026 (scope and status of active moratorium).
11 / 11
Original cinematic editorial illustration of a human creator finishing one tactile handmade artwork while a stream of polished, increasingly repetitive synthetic images fills the studio behind them; the left side is dark and open for the module title.

Creative work & the value of human effort · Risk field note 07

Creative work

When creative output becomes abundant and cheap, human creators may lose income—and human-made work may lose cultural value.
Severity 4.5Certainty 8medium confidence
01 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 02 · What we actually know

The evidence is real—but bounded.

01

A 2026 Delphi study treats devaluation of human creativity as a distinct AI risk

03

AI assistance improved individual stories but made the collection less diverse

05

AI training uses vast quantities of human-created work, much of it is copyrighted material

06

Large creator-income losses are forecasts, not observed outcomes

01
Saeri et al., Jun 2026 · AI Risk Repository domain taxonomy
03
Doshi & Hauser, *Science Advances*, Jul 2024
05
U.S. Copyright Office, Part 3, May 2025
06
UNESCO, Feb 2026
02 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 02A · What we actually know · Point 02

Platform effects were modest on jobs—and larger on earnings.

Two grouped bar panels: on one online labour platform, a difference-in-differences study estimated that writing-related freelancers experienced 2.0% fewer monthly jobs and 5.2% lower monthly earnings after ChatGPT, while image-related freelancers experienced 2.1% fewer jobs and 5.2% lower earnings after DALL·E 2 and Midjourney. These are estimated short-term platform effects, not the whole creative economy.
Hui, Reshef & Zhou, published article, *Organization Science*, Sep 2024 · open AEA manuscript used to verify the figures, Oct 2024
03 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 02B · What we actually know · Point 04

Participants in a 2023 study did not like art with "AI-made" label regardless of actual source

−62%
assigned monetary value
−77%
estimated production time
Horton, White & Iyengar, *Scientific Reports*, Nov 2023
04 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Change is evident. Collapse is not.

Consensus

Creative work is already being changed, but economy-wide devaluation has not been demonstrated

Genuinely contested

  • AI can augment creators and compete with them at the same time
  • Cultural homogenization is plausible but difficult to measure
  • Copyright law is not fully settled and neither is the cultural question
01
Hui, Reshef & Zhou, published article, 2024 · open AEA manuscript · Doshi & Hauser, 2024 · Horton, White & Iyengar, 2023
02
Doshi & Hauser, 2024 · Hui, Reshef & Zhou, published article, 2024 · open AEA manuscript
03
Doshi & Hauser, 2024
04
U.S. Copyright Office, May 2025
05 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

The disagreement is about value, access, and power.

01

Creators' point of viewConsent, credit, and compensation are economic infrastructure.

02

Augmentation viewCreative capability can become more widely distributed.

03

Authenticity-premium viewAbundance may increase demand for demonstrably human work.

04

Political-economy viewThe central issue is who captures the gains.

01
Government of Canada, What We Heard report, Jul 2024
02
Doshi & Hauser, *Science Advances*, Jul 2024
03
Horton, White & Iyengar, *Scientific Reports*, Nov 2023
04
UNESCO, Feb 2026
06 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 05 · Public sentiment

The public expects creative costs more than benefits.

01

53% of U.S. adults expect AI to worsen people’s ability to think creatively

03

The public is less optimistic than AI experts about arts and entertainment

01
Pew Research Center, Sep 2025
03
Pew Research Center, Apr 2025 · methodology
07 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 05A · Public sentiment · Point 02

People want provenance—but doubt they can spot AI content.

Two statistic panels: 76% of U.S. adults say identifying AI-made content is extremely or very important, while 53% are not confident they can distinguish AI-generated pictures, video, or text from human-made content.
Pew Research Center, Sep 2025
08 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Synthetic abundance drives down pay and visibility; entry-level commissions disappear; a few platforms capture the value of creators’ work; audiences struggle to find or value human voices; cultural output becomes more uniform

If we handle it well

AI expands who can create and helps professionals do more ambitious work; consent, compensation, credit, and provenance become normal; human-made and thoughtfully AI-assisted work remain economically viable; cultural participation and diversity grow

09 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 07 · What can / should / is being done

Keep human work visible, viable, and credited.

01

Make provenance visible

02

Build workable routes to consent and compensation

03

Protect the conditions in which diverse human culture can be made and found

04

Institutional (OC): pay and credit human creative work, disclose meaningful AI assistance, and preserve spaces for human voice

05

Personal: support creators and be transparent about how you create

01
C2PA specification and guidance, v2.4 · C2PA FAQ
02
U.S. Copyright Office, May 2025 · Government of Canada, What We Heard report, Jul 2024
10 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · 08 · Poll + discussion

Poll Questions

01

How severe is this risk, and how certain are you?

02

Which safeguard matters most for sustaining human creative work?

A

consent over training

B

compensation and revenue sharing

C

clear AI provenance

D

protected human-made spaces and opportunities

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11 / 12

Creative work & the value of human effort · Sources

Evidence used in this module.

  • Prioritization of Risks from Artificial Intelligence: A Delphi Study of 272 International Experts — Saeri et al., preprint, 2026-06-03.
  • AI Risk Repository — MIT FutureTech, living risk database and domain taxonomy.
  • The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment — published article — Hui, Reshef & Zhou, Organization Science, published online 2024-09-24; open AEA manuscript used for quantitative verification, dated 2024-10-12.
  • Generative AI enhances individual creativity but reduces the collective diversity of novel content — Doshi & Hauser, Science Advances, 2024-07-12.
  • Bias against AI art can enhance perceptions of human creativity — Horton, White & Iyengar, Scientific Reports, 2023-11-03.
  • Creators face projected global revenue losses of up to 24% by 2028 — UNESCO, 2026-02-18.
  • Copyright and Artificial Intelligence, Part 3: Generative AI Training — U.S. Copyright Office, 2025-05-09 pre-publication version.
  • Consultation on Copyright in the Age of Generative Artificial Intelligence: What We Heard Report — Government of Canada, 2024-07-26.
  • How Americans View AI and Its Impact on People and Society — Pew Research Center, 2025-09-17.
  • Public and expert predictions for AI’s next 20 years — Pew Research Center, 2025-04-03.
  • C2PA Technical Specification — Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity, version 2.4.
  • C2PA FAQ — Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity; limitations and durability of provenance metadata.
  • Real or Fake Text? — University of Pennsylvania research game; identify where a human-written passage changes to machine-generated text.
  • The “Art or AI?” Museum of Very Modern Art — ADAPT Research Centre gallery challenge; decide whether each artwork was human-made or AI-generated.
  • Can you tell a real face from an AI-generated one? — UNSW Psychology research test comparing photographs of real people with synthetic faces.
  • Can you spot the video deepfake? — Fraunhofer AISEC interactive; classify video recordings as authentic or manipulated.
12 / 12
Conceptual illustration of an abstract AI computation core connected to communications, finance, electrical-grid, and public-infrastructure domains through visible permission gates and segmented barriers. The system is positioned on the right against a dark background with open space on the left.

AI safety / loss of control · Risk field note 06

AI safety / loss of control

Advanced AI could escape meaningful human control — with consequences up to catastrophic or existential.
Severity 9Certainty 3contested confidence
01 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 02A · What we actually know · Point 01

Observed pieces do not yet add up to loss of control.

Flow diagram: researchers have observed pieces such as reward hacking and simulated oversight evasion, but the 2026 International AI Safety Report says loss of control would require three uncertain conditions together—sufficient capabilities, harmful propensities, and an enabling deployment environment.
International AI Safety Report 2026 · arXiv version
02 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 02 · What we actually know

Observed warning signs are not loss of control.

02

Leading researchers split: Geoffrey Hinton and Yoshua Bengio warn of catastrophe; Yann LeCun and Andrew Ng call the concern overblown

02
Bengio et al., 2024 · TIME interview, 2024 · DeepLearning.AI, 2023
03 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Current capability is limited. Forecasts are not.

Consensus

Current international assessment: today's systems lack the integrated capabilities needed for loss of control

Genuinely contested

Deep disagreement on the probability and timeline of catastrophe is itself a strong survey finding.

01
International AI Safety Report 2026, §2.2.2 · Grace et al., 2025
04 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 03A · Consensus vs. genuinely contested · Point 03

Researchers give a very wide range.

Horizontal response-distribution chart: among 661 AI researchers answering the loss-of-control question in October 2023, the median estimate was 10%, the middle half ran from 1% to 30%, and responses spanned the full 0%–100% range. The axis uses five-percentage-point intervals.
Grace et al., surveyed Oct 2023; peer-reviewed 2025 · public data and materials · Saeri et al., 2026
05 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 03A · Consensus vs. genuinely contested · Point 04

Three pathways to existential harm.

Three pathway cards from a 2026 Delphi-study preprint: with pragmatic mitigation, experts assigned a mean 12% probability of broadly defined catastrophic harm to dangerous capabilities, 9% to AI misalignment, and 12% to weapons and cyberattacks by 2030. Each card briefly describes the pathway.

Important: these percentages describe the study's broad category of catastrophic harm—not the probability of extinction. The three domains are shown because their definitions contain plausible pathways to existential harm; the Delphi study did not classify them as “existential risks.”

Saeri et al., 2026 · Saeri et al., 2026, especially Table 1, Figure 1 and Supplementary File 1
06 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

Experts disagree about probability, timing, and response.

01

High-concern view (Bengio/Hinton/Russell)Catastrophic risk is non-trivial, so prepare now.

02

Skeptical view (LeCun/Ng)Current approaches are far from human-level intelligence.

03

Uncertain-but-concerned viewSevere outcomes justify proportionate preparation despite deep uncertainty.

01
Bengio et al., *Science*, 2024
02
LeCun interview, 2024 · Ng commentary, 2023
03
International AI Safety Report 2026
07 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 05A · Public sentiment · Point 01

Public concern is broad—not a loss-of-control forecast.

Two workshop-palette statistic cards: 63% of U.S. adults say AI is advancing too quickly; 40% expect AI's impact on society over the next 20 years to be negative.

Pew Research Center · U.S. adults · N = 5,119 · February 17–23, 2026 · separate questions; neither asks specifically about loss of control or extinction.

Pew Research Center, Jun 2026
08 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 05 · Public sentiment

Public concern is broader than loss of control.

02

Public unease cannot be ranked directly against the expert forecast distribution.

09 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Humans lose meaningful control of powerful, autonomous systems — catastrophic and potentially irreversible

If we handle it well

Robust safety, evaluation, and governance keep advanced AI controllable and aligned; capability gains captured safely

10 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 07 · What can / should / is being done

Defence in depth—not a single safeguard.

01

Identify

Decide what could go wrong

Threat models · risk taxonomies · warning indicators

02

Test

Look for dangerous capabilities or behaviour

Evaluations · red-teaming · independent audits

03

Limit

Reduce access and exposure

Staged release · permissions · monitoring · “if-then” triggers

04

Govern & learn

Catch patterns and update controls

Incident reporting · transparency · oversight

LayerPurposeExamples
1 · IdentifyDecide what could go wrongThreat models · risk taxonomies · warning indicators
2 · TestLook for dangerous capabilities or behaviourEvaluations · red-teaming · independent audits
3 · LimitReduce access and exposureStaged release · permissions · monitoring · “if-then” triggers
4 · Govern & learnCatch patterns and update controlsIncident reporting · transparency · oversight
International AI Safety Report 2026, ch. 3 · International Network for Advanced AI Measurement, Evaluation, and Science
11 / 13

AI safety / loss of control · 08 · Poll + discussion

Poll Questions

01

Consensus-map rating (grid):

02

Topical opinion poll (distinct dimension — priority):

A

speculative catastrophic risk

B

present-day harms (bias, jobs, privacy)

QR code for the AI safety / loss of control poll

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AI safety / loss of control · Sources

Evidence used in this module.

  • International AI Safety Report 2026 — Bengio (chair), 100+ experts, 30+ countries.
  • International AI Safety Report 2026 (arXiv).
  • Managing extreme AI risks amid rapid progress — Bengio, Hinton, Russell et al., Science, 2024.
  • Meta's AI Chief Yann LeCun on AGI, Open-Source, and AI Risk — direct interview, 2024.
  • Exaggerated Fear of AI Is Causing Real Harm — Andrew Ng, 2023.
  • Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI — Grace et al., Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2025.
  • 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI — public data and materials — Grace et al.; cleaned response data used for the expert-distribution infographic.
  • Prioritization of Risks from Artificial Intelligence: A Delphi Study of 272 International Experts — Saeri et al., Jun 2026 preprint (newer but not peer reviewed and not directly comparable to the loss-of-control probability question).
  • Americans and AI 2026: Chatbots, Smart Devices and Views on Impact — Pew Research Center, 2026.
13 / 13
Cinematic editorial image of diverse portrait subjects passing through a facial-analysis scanner while one projected face is processed differently; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Bias & discrimination · Risk field note 08

Bias & discrimination

AI systems can reproduce, hide, or amplify unequal treatment—in automated decisions and in the text, images, summaries, and recommendations people generate every day.
Severity 5Certainty 8tight confidence
01 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 02 · What we actually know

Bias is measurable across systems and outputs.

01

Generative AI can reproduce social stereotypes in ordinary writing tasks

02

Face-recognition error gaps were large for many — but not all — algorithms

03

Automated hiring has produced a documented age screen

04

Some reasonable definitions of “fair” can conflict—you may have to choose which error matters most

01
Wan & Chang, ACL, 2025
02
NISTIR 8280 summary, 2019; updated 2025
03
EEOC, 2023
04
Chouldechova, *Big Data*, 2017
02 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Consensus and Genuinely Contested

Consensus

  • Bias can enter through an AI system's data, design, deployment, or generated output
  • AI is not uniformly more biased than people, and measured disparities vary by model and use

Genuinely contested

  • Experts disagree about which definition of fairness should govern a particular decision
  • The metric chosen changes what “fair” looks like
03 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

Fairness depends on the comparison and values chosen.

01

Structural-risk viewAutomation can make inequity harder to see, question, and appeal.

02

Comparative-performance viewCompare AI with real human processes, not with a perfect ideal.

03

Governance-choice viewFairness is not one technical score.

02
NIST, 2019
03
Chouldechova, 2017 · Wan & Chang, 2025
04 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 05 · Public sentiment

Concern is mainstream—and public views are mixed.

01

Concern about AI bias is mainstream, not confined to critics

02

Only minorities of Canadians trust either AI or people to avoid discrimination

03

The U.S. public thinks some perspectives are represented much better than others in AI design

04

People can see AI as both a remedy for bias and an unacceptable final decision-maker

01
Pew Research Center, 2025
02
Ipsos AI Monitor, 2025, pp. 20–21 and 56
03
Pew Research Center, 2025
04
Pew Research Center, 2023
05 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Opaque systems deny jobs, services, education, credit, care, or liberty to protected groups at scale, while generated text and images normalize stereotypes, with weak notice or recourse

If we handle it well

Validated systems reveal disparities, generate more inclusive content, improve on documented baselines, support accountable human decisions, and give affected people notice, review, accommodation, and remedy

06 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 07 · What can / should / is being done

Test, monitor, explain, and provide recourse.

  • Test for bias before an AI system reaches real people
  • Monitor real outcomes and preserve meaningful human review
  • Canadian human-rights duties already apply to AI systems
  • Some jurisdictions are turning general anti-discrimination duties into specific AI rules
  • OC should validate AI for its own people and purposes—and apply its inclusion lens
  • Individuals can probe generative output, but institutions remain accountable
OHRC/LCO · California Civil Rights Department · Colorado Attorney General · OC inclusion lens
07 / 09

Bias & discrimination · 08 · Poll + discussion

Poll Questions

01

How severe is this risk, and how certain are you?

02

When OC uses generative AI for people-facing work, which safeguard matters most?

A

human review

B

matched-prompt bias testing

C

diverse design and review teams

D

transparency and a challenge process

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08 / 09

Bias & discrimination · Sources

Selected sources

  • White Men Lead, Black Women Help? Benchmarking and Mitigating Language Agency Social Biases in LLMs — Wan and Chang, Association for Computational Linguistics, 2025; generative biographies, professor reviews, and reference letters.
  • Face Recognition Vendor Test Part 3: Demographic Effects — NISTIR 8280, 2019.
  • iTutorGroup settlement — U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, 2023.
  • Fair Prediction with Disparate Impact — Chouldechova, Big Data, 2017.
  • Views of risks, opportunities and regulation of AI — Pew Research Center, 2025.
  • Ipsos AI Monitor 2025 — 30-country public-opinion survey, including a Canadian sample, 2025.
  • Americans' views on use of AI in hiring — Pew Research Center, survey fielded 2022 and published 2023.
  • Human Rights AI Impact Assessment — Ontario Human Rights Commission and Law Commission of Ontario.
  • Inclusive Community at Okanagan College — OC's Inclusive Community Plan and EDISJ resources.
  • California employment regulations regarding automated-decision systems — California Civil Rights Department, 2025.
  • Colorado Automated Decision-Making Technology rulemaking — Colorado Attorney General, updated 2026.
09 / 09
Conceptual editorial image of a college classroom with information flowing from the learning space into an opaque server room; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Privacy & generative AI · Risk field note 03

Privacy & generative AI

AI can identify us, assemble scattered traces into profiles, and carry personal information across systems faster than our privacy controls can follow.
Severity 6Certainty 9tight confidence
01 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 02 · What we actually know

Privacy risk already spans images, training, prompts, and profiles.

01

🍁 Clearview made billions of public photos searchable by face—and BC's privacy order survived appeal

02

🍁 Canadian regulators found that privacy law follows data through the generative-AI lifecycle

03

AI can assemble scattered traces into a sensitive profile

04

A prompt or upload can be a disclosure of personal information

01
joint investigation summary, 2021-02-03 · *Clearview AI Inc. v. British Columbia (Information and Privacy Commissioner)*, 2026 BCCA 67 · SCC docket 42312
02
joint investigation overview, 2026-05-06
03
NIST Generative AI Profile, 2024, pp. 7–8 · Staab et al., 2024
04
Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat guide
02 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 02 · What we actually know

Model limits and connected systems create new exposure.

05

Language models can reveal memorized training data under adversarial testing

06

Connected AI agents create a path from untrusted content to private data

07

AI-generated information about a person can be private, consequential, and wrong

08

Concrete protections are being implemented, but they do not settle every legal question

05
Nasr et al., 2023
06
NIST CAISI, 2026-03-23
07
Canadian privacy regulators, 2023-12-07 · joint investigation overview, 2026
08
joint investigation overview, 2026-05-06
03 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

The lifecycle is clear. The lawful path is not.

Consensus

Privacy protection must cover collection, training, prompts, inferred profiles, outputs, and connected systems

Genuinely contested

  • Which legal basis can authorize web-scale training
  • How fully model-level privacy rights can be delivered
01
Canadian joint principles, 2023 · NIST Generative AI Profile, 2024
02
Canadian findings, 2026 · EDPB Opinion 28/2024
03
joint investigation overview, 2026
04 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

The disagreement is about rights, residual risk, and context.

01

Rights-first viewPublic posting did not supply valid consent for the investigated model training.

02

Pragmatic-regulation viewPermit beneficial uses when residual risk is materially reduced.

03

Institutional risk-management viewMatch the tool and safeguards to the data and task.

01
joint findings, 2026
02
OPC conclusion, 2026
03
Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat guide
05 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 05 · Public sentiment

Concern is widespread. Understanding is uneven.

01

88% of Canadians expressed at least some concern about their personal information being used to train AI systems; 42% were extremely concerned

02

83% of Canadians were at least somewhat concerned about privacy when using AI tools; 34% were extremely concerned

03

Concern is high, but understanding is uneven

01
OPC public-opinion research, 2025
02
OPC public-opinion research, 2025
03
OPC public-opinion research, 2025
06 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Public images, scattered online traces, institutional records, and connected accounts become one persistent profile; AI systems expose or act on it while the person cannot see, challenge, or correct it

If we handle it well

Approved tools, narrow permissions, minimal data, clear purposes, enforceable contracts, privacy-preserving engineering, and meaningful access/correction let institutions use AI without surrendering control of personal information

07 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 07 · What can / should / is being done

Protect personal information at four levels.

  • Technical — minimize the data, isolate sensitive work, limit retention, and constrain what AI agents can access or do.
  • Legal and regulatory — apply existing privacy law across the full AI lifecycle, not only when someone enters a prompt.
  • Institutional (OC) — FIPPA (the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act) binds Okanagan College and us as its employees: use approved tools and complete privacy review before personal information enters AI.
  • Personal — treat every prompt, upload, and connected app as a potential disclosure of personal information.
Canadian joint principles, 2023 · Treasury Board guide · ICO agentic-AI analysis · joint OpenAI investigation, 2026 · BC FIPPA, s. 25.1 · OC Privacy Policy, 2023 · OC Privacy Impact Assessment Procedures, 2023
08 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · 08 · Poll + discussion

Poll Questions

01

Consensus-map rating (grid):

02

For work involving student or employee personal information, OC's default should be:

A

approved protected AI tools only

B

case-by-case staff judgment

C

no generative AI for that work

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09 / 10

Privacy & generative AI · Sources

Evidence used in this module.

  • Overview of the Joint Investigation of OpenAI OpCo, LLC — Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada, CAI Québec, OIPC-BC, and OIPC-Alberta, 2026-05-06.
  • Principles for responsible, trustworthy and privacy-protective generative AI technologies — Canadian federal, provincial, and territorial privacy regulators, 2023-12-07; page modified 2025-05-06.
  • Guide on the use of generative artificial intelligence — Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat; guidance for federal institutions.
  • Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile — U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2024-07-26.
  • Beyond Memorization: Violating Privacy Via Inference with Large Language Models — Staab et al., ICLR 2024.
  • Scalable Extraction of Training Data from (Production) Language Models — Nasr et al., 2023-11-28.
  • Insights into AI Agent Security from a Large-Scale Red-Teaming Competition — NIST Center for AI Standards and Innovation, 2026-03-23.
  • Data protection and privacy risks of agentic AI — UK Information Commissioner's Office, accessed 2026-07-22.
  • Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act, s. 25.1 — Province of British Columbia; prohibits unauthorized collection, use, or disclosure of personal information by public-body employees, officers, and directors.
  • Privacy Policy — Okanagan College, effective 2023-03-23.
  • Procedures for Privacy Impact Assessments — Okanagan College, effective 2023-03-23.
  • Opinion 28/2024 on personal data in AI models — European Data Protection Board, 2024-12-18.
  • Clearview AI's unlawful practices represented mass surveillance of Canadians — Canadian federal, BC, Alberta, and Quebec privacy regulators, 2021-02-03.
  • Clearview AI Inc. v. British Columbia (Information and Privacy Commissioner), 2026 BCCA 67 — BC Court of Appeal, 2026-02-18; Supreme Court of Canada leave application docket 42312.
  • 2024–2025 Public Opinion Research on Privacy Issues — Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada / Phoenix Strategic Perspectives, March 2025.
10 / 10
Cinematic editorial image of three decision-makers in a dark boardroom overlooking an immense interconnected compute network; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Concentration of power · Risk field note 05

Concentration of power

A handful of companies control the compute, models, and infrastructure of AI — concentrating economic and political power — while governments and firms wrestle over who sets the rules.
Severity 6Certainty 7medium confidence
01 / 12

Concentration of power

02 · What we actually know · Point 01

>80%
of GPUs used for AI come from NvidiaNvidia estimate cited by OECD · 2025Third-party market estimate; AI GPU definitions vary.
≈90%
of the most advanced chips are made by TSMCTSMC estimate cited by OECD · 2025Different market from overall foundry contracts; not an audited share.
OECD, 2025
02 / 12

Concentration of power · 02 · What we actually know · Points 03–05 & 07

The frontier is concentrated—and governments are deciding how to respond.

03

Four companies are building Frontier AI; another six are "near-frontier" level

04

Big Tech capital spending topped US$400 billion in 2025 and is forecast to rise another 75% in 2026

05

Competition authorities are acting—but have not established abuse

07

International AI governance (kind of) exists, but no body licenses frontier development worldwide

03
Stanford AI Index, 2026
04
IEA, 2026
05
Opinion 24-A-05 summary
07
United Nations · Council of Europe, 2024 · Plan A, 2026-07-09 · verification plan · project background
03 / 12

Concentration of power · 02 · What we actually know · Points 02 & 06

Dependence is visible—and control is already contested.

02

Two unnamed Nvidia customers accounted for 22% and 14% of total revenue

06

The U.S.–Anthropic dispute tested whether governments or providers set AI-use limits

02
Nvidia FY2026 10-K
06
GSA · Anthropic's account, 2026-02-27 · NSPM-11, 2026-06-05
04 / 12

Concentration of power

03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Consensus

Key AI inputs and the model frontier are concentrated

Genuinely contested

  • Durable market power, or a fast-shifting market?
  • Which level should set binding limits?
05 / 12

Concentration of power

04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

01

Competition-first viewKeep chips, cloud and models open to rivals.

02

National-rulebook viewOne country-wide standard is clearer than many local rules.

03

Global-coordination viewShare data globally and give every country a seat at the table.

04

Enforceable-treaty viewMajor powers should verify and slow frontier AI together.

01
UK Competition and Markets Authority, 2024 · OECD on AI openness, 2026
02
Executive Order 14365, 2025-12-11 · Anthropic, 2025
03
United Nations, 2025–2026
04
AI 2040: Plan A, 2026 · verification plan
06 / 12

Concentration of power

05 · Public sentiment · Point 01

59%
had little or no confidence in U.S. companies to develop and use AI responsiblyU.S. adults · February 2026
results · methodology
07 / 12

Concentration of power

05 · Public sentiment · Point 02

67%
had little or no confidence in the U.S. government to regulate AI effectivelySame U.S. survey · February 2026Distrust was directed at both industry and government.
Pew, 2026
08 / 12

Concentration of power

06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

A few firms (and aligned states) gatekeep access, pricing, and permissible speech; innovation and democratic oversight both suffer; governments coerce or capture providers

If we handle it well

Open models + competitive chips + smart antitrust + balanced regulation keep AI plural, contestable, and accountable

09 / 12

Concentration of power

07 · What can / should / is being done

01

Market: scrutinize compute, cloud partnerships and switching barriers

02

Governments: connect domestic guardrails to treaty-ready verification

03

Institutional (OC): require portability and a migration path for critical AI services

04

Personal: know who holds your data—but switching alone cannot fix the market

10 / 12

Concentration of power

08 · Poll + discussion

01

Consensus-map rating (grid):

02

Bigger risk — a few companies controlling AI, or governments controlling AI?

A

a few companies

B

governments

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11 / 12

Concentration of power

Sources

  • Competition in artificial-intelligence infrastructure — OECD, 2025 (authoritative synthesis; individual market shares rely on cited industry estimates).
  • Nvidia FY2026 10-K — SEC filing, fiscal year ended 2026-01-25.
  • 2026 AI Index: Research and Development — Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, 2026; industry share of notable-model production.
  • 2026 AI Index: Technical Performance — Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI, 2026; March 2026 frontier and broader top-tier model-provider comparison.
  • Key Questions on Energy and AI — International Energy Agency, 2026.
  • Opinion 24-A-05 on competition in generative AI — Autorité de la concurrence, 2024-06-28.
  • AI foundation-models update — UK Competition and Markets Authority, 2024.
  • Executive Order 14365 — White House, 2025-12-11.
  • Statement on Anthropic preliminary injunction — U.S. General Services Administration, 2026-04-03.
  • Anthropic statement on the defence dispute — Anthropic, 2026-02-27 (party account).
  • National Security Presidential Memorandum 11 — White House, 2026-06-05; federal policy on multi-vendor onboarding and control of mission-dependent AI systems.
  • Independent International Scientific Panel on AI and Global Dialogue — United Nations, established 2025; first Global Dialogue held 2026-07-06 to 2026-07-07.
  • Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence — Council of Europe, 2024; first legally binding international AI treaty, open beyond Europe.
  • AI 2040: Plan A and verification plan — AI Futures Project, 2026-07-09; prescriptive international-compute proposal, not government policy or a forecast.
  • U.S. confidence in companies and government on AI — Pew Research Center, survey conducted 2026-02-17 to 2026-02-23.
12 / 12
Original cinematic editorial image of four early-career job seekers standing back from an unreachable workplace ladder and looking toward its missing lower rungs; the left side is dark and open for the module title.

Jobs & the economy · Risk field note 01

Jobs & the economy

AI may already be narrowing the entry-level pathways our graduates depend on—but the evidence does not yet show economy-wide job displacement.
Severity 6Certainty 7contested confidence
01 / 14

Jobs & the economy

02 · What we actually know · Point 01

Diverging horizontal bar chart: in Stanford's fixed U.S. sample, annual employment growth was 1.1% in the most AI-exposed occupations versus 2.0% in the least-exposed occupations for all ages; among workers ages 22–25, it was −3.8% versus +2.0%.
Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Jun 2026
02 / 14

Jobs & the economy

02 · What we actually know · Point 02

23%
of announced U.S. job cuts cited AI as a reason101 743 of 443 604 announced cuts · first half of 2026Employer attribution ≠ verified direct replacement.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Jun 2026
03 / 14

Jobs & the economy

02 · What we actually know · Point 03

03

Yale and New York Fed analyses show little distinct AI-driven employment decline so far

03
Yale Budget Lab, May 2026 · New York Fed, May 2026
04 / 14

Jobs & the economy · 03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Current evidence is a warning signal—not a causal verdict.

Consensus

No economy-wide jobs shock is visible yet, but Stanford finds persistent weakness among young workers in AI-exposed occupations

Genuinely contested

  • Whether AI is causing early-career job losses remains unsettled
  • Different datasets can produce different answers about AI's employment effects
01
Stanford, Jun 2026 · Yale, May 2026
02
Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Feb 2026 · Humlum & Vestergaard, NBER, revised Mar 2026
03
Stanford, Jun 2026 · Yale full analysis, May 2026
05 / 14

Jobs & the economy

04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

01

Canary viewWeakness among young workers in AI-exposed jobs may be a leading indicator.

02

Cautious macro viewBroad data do not show that AI is causing labour-market cooling.

03

Acemoglu's modest-growth viewAI may lift GDP by only about 1% over a decade.

04

Preparation-now viewUncertainty is not a reason to wait.

01
Stanford Canaries dashboard
02
Yale Budget Lab · New York Fed
03
Acemoglu, 2025
04
statement · Stanford Digital Economy Lab announcement, 2026-07-13
06 / 14

Jobs & the economy

05 · Public sentiment · Point 01

54%
expect AI to bring both benefits and harms to their industryCanadian workers · May 2026
Angus Reid Institute, Jun 2026
07 / 14

Jobs & the economy

05 · Public sentiment · Point 02

29%
worry AI could replace their own job10% very worried · 19% somewhat worried
Angus Reid Institute, Jun 2026
08 / 14

Jobs & the economy

05 · Public sentiment · Point 03

40%
fear fewer entry-level jobs will remain for gaining experience502 Canadian adults · November 2025 online survey
Express/Harris Poll, Jun 2026
09 / 14

Jobs & the economy

05 · Public sentiment · Point 04

Two statistic blocks: 18% of U.S. workers think AI or automation could eliminate their job within five years, while 1% of surveyed laid-off U.S. workers named it as the primary cause.
Gallup, Apr 2026 · Gallup, Jun 2026
10 / 14

Jobs & the economy

06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Entry-level pathways are permanently hollowed out; a generation struggles to acquire the experience needed for higher-skilled work; productivity gains concentrate among owners and established experts

If we handle it well

Routine work is automated while deliberate apprenticeships, supervised practice, and AI-augmented entry roles create faster paths to mastery and broadly shared productivity gains

11 / 14

Jobs & the economy

07 · What can / should / is being done

01

Organizations should deliberately redesign entry-level pathways for the AI era

02

Track junior hiring and career progression separately from total headcount

03

Education: prepare students to use AI without sacrificing judgment and foundational skills

04

Personal: build AI skills alongside evidence of sound judgment and continuous learning

01
WEF, Jun 2026
12 / 14

Jobs & the economy

08 · Poll + discussion

01

How severe is this risk, and how certain are you?

02

What most explains the entry-level hiring dip?

A

AI automation

B

interest rates and hiring cycles

C

several overlapping causes

D

too early to tell

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13 / 14

Jobs & the economy

Sources

  • AI Economic Indicators: June 2026 Update — Stanford Digital Economy Lab, June 2026.
  • Canaries Dashboard — Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP Research, updated 2026-07-01.
  • Canaries, Interest Rates, and Timing — Stanford Digital Economy Lab, 2026-02-09.
  • Challenger Job Cut Announcement Report: June 2026 — Challenger, Gray & Christmas, released 2026-07-01.
  • AI Is Probably Not (Yet) the Reason for Labor Market Weakening — The Budget Lab at Yale, 2026-05-07.
  • Do Job Postings Show Early Labor-Market Effects of AI? — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2026-05-14.
  • Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI — Humlum and Vestergaard, NBER Working Paper 33777, revised March 2026.
  • The Simple Macroeconomics of AI — Daron Acemoglu, published in Economic Policy, 2025.
  • AI at Work — Angus Reid Institute, 2026-06-08; survey fielded 2026-05-07 to 2026-05-11.
  • AI Boosting Productivity but Fueling Job Anxiety Among Canadian Workers — Express Employment Professionals/Harris Poll, 2026-06-10; survey fielded November 2025.
  • Rising AI Adoption Spurs Workforce Changes — Gallup, 2026-04-13; survey fielded 2026-02-04 to 2026-02-19.
  • U.S. Workers Continue to Report Downsizing — Gallup, 2026-06-17.
  • Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Entry-Level Work — World Economic Forum and PwC, 2026-06-22.
  • We Must Act Now: A Statement on AI's Transformation of the Economy — 2026-07-13.
  • “We Must Act Now”: Sixteen Nobel Laureates Join Leading Economists and AI Researchers — Stanford Digital Economy Lab, 2026-07-13.
14 / 14
Cinematic editorial image of a photographer holding an authentic film negative before a wall of visually similar synthetic media; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Misinformation & deepfakes · Risk field note 03

Misinformation & deepfakes

AI floods us with convincing fakes and persuasive content, making authentic evidence harder to evaluate.
Severity 6Certainty 8medium confidence
01 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

02 · What we actually know · Point 02

67.52%
compliance with the assigned answer after Claude 3.5 Sonnet persuasion1 242 U.S. Prolific participants · revised 2026 preprintConstrained low-stakes quiz; not evidence of election-wide effects.
59.91%
compliance after incentivized human persuasionSame preregistered experimentThe model–human difference was 7.61 percentage points.
Salvi et al., revised 2026
02 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

02 · What we actually know · Points 01, 03 & 04

01

AI voice cloning has already been used for voter suppression

03

Warnings can help, but can also create doubt about authentic evidence

04

The “liar's dividend” has experimental support

01
FCC, 2024
03
Communications Psychology, 2025
04
American Political Science Review, 2023
03 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Consensus

Generative systems can produce deceptive political audio and persuasive text

Genuinely contested

  • The prevalence and incremental influence of AI-generated election misinformation remain uncertain
  • Intervention evidence is incomplete:
02
Brookings, 2024
04 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

01

Epistemic-risk viewDeepfakes also make authentic evidence easier to deny.

02

Measured-impact viewDocumented incidents do not establish large electoral effects.

03

Resilience viewLayer provenance, verification, platform processes, and public literacy.

01
California Law Review, 2019
02
Brookings, 2024
05 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

05 · Public sentiment · Point 01

85%
expected political AI content to spread election misinformationU.S. adults · March 2026Expectation—not observed prevalence or influence.
Marist tables and methodology, 2026
06 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

05 · Public sentiment · Points 02 & 03

02

Concern about deception coexists with concern about regulation

03

Worry does not settle the remedy

02
FIRE/Morning Consult, 2025
07 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

No shared basis for judging evidence; fabricated media deceives people while authentic records are dismissed as fake; trust and accountability erode

If we handle it well

Layered provenance, verification, platform response, law, and literacy make manipulation harder and help people assess authentic media without assuming every unlabeled item is false

08 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

07 · What can / should / is being done

01

Technical:C2PA Content Credentials can record tamper-evident provenance and editing history.

02

Policy:as of 2026-06-23, 31 U.S. states had enacted laws regulating deepfakes in political messaging, mainly through disclosure requirements.

03

Institutions and platforms:preserve original files, publish correction paths, authenticate official communications, disclose synthetic media, and prepare rapid incident-response channels…

04

Education:teach lateral reading, source tracing, reverse-search/verification habits, and the difference between “AI-generated,” “manipulated,” “unverified,” and “false.”

05

Personal:pause before sharing emotionally activating content; locate the earliest credible source and corroboration.

01
C2PA explainer, version 2.3, 2026
02
NCSL, 2026
09 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

08 · Poll + discussion

01

Consensus-map rating (grid): severity + certainty for this risk.

02

Bigger threat — fake content fooling people, or real content dismissed as fake (liar's dividend)?

A

fake content fooling people

B

real content dismissed as fake (liar's dividend)

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10 / 11

Misinformation & deepfakes

Sources

  • FCC Notice of Apparent Liability: Steve Kramer — U.S. Federal Communications Commission, 2024.
  • Large Language Models Are More Persuasive Than Incentivized Human Persuaders — Salvi et al., revised 2026, preprint.
  • Deepfake warnings can undermine trust in real videos — Communications Psychology, 2025.
  • The Liar's Dividend: Can Politicians Claim Misinformation to Evade Accountability? — American Political Science Review, 2023.
  • Deep Fakes: A Looming Challenge for Privacy, Democracy, and National Security — Chesney & Citron, California Law Review, 2019.
  • Are concerns about digital disinformation and elections overblown? — Brookings, 2024.
  • NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll tables and methodology — Marist Poll, 2026.
  • FIRE/Morning Consult political-AI poll — FIRE, 2025.
  • C2PA and Content Credentials Explainer — C2PA, version 2.3, 2026.
  • Artificial Intelligence in Elections and Campaigns — National Conference of State Legislatures, updated 2026-06-23.
11 / 11
Cinematic editorial image of a mechanical AI-assisted hand completing precise work while a person's unassisted hand and manual tools remain beside it; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Overreliance & deskilling · Risk field note 09

Overreliance & deskilling

We may offload so much thinking to AI that we weaken our ability or willingness to work independently — but lasting deskilling is not yet established.
Severity 7Certainty 4contested confidence
01 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

02 · What we actually know · Point 01

0.57
mean unaided solve rate after brief AI assistanceFirst randomized fraction-solving experiment · 2026 preprintRoughly 10 minutes of assistance; not evidence of lasting decline.
0.73
mean unaided solve rate without prior AI assistanceControl condition in the same experimentA constrained task—not population-wide deskilling.
Liu et al., 2026
02 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

02 · What we actually know · Points 02, 03 & 04

02

A small essay-writing study found lower task engagement with an LLM, not proof of brain damage

03

Frequent AI use and lower critical-thinking scores were correlated in one U.K. convenience sample

04

AI can also improve learning outcomes when it is part of an instructional design

02
Kosmyna et al., 2025 · critique, 2026
03
Gerlich, 2025 · correction
04
Chen & Cheung, *Educational Research Review*, 2025
03 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

03 · Consensus vs. genuinely contested

Consensus

  • People often exert less effort when a tool supplies an answer
  • AI-supported instruction can improve measured learning outcomes

Genuinely contested

  • Whether routine generative-AI use causes durable, transferable skill loss remains uncertain
  • Measurement limit:
04 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

04 · Spectrum of informed opinion

01

Deskilling-alarm viewRepeated outsourcing can weaken independent capability.

02

Augmentation viewOffloading routine work can improve learning and performance.

03

Structural viewDeskilling is not merely a matter of individual self-control.

04

Historical-adaptation viewTools have always changed which skills people retain.

02
Chen & Cheung, 2025
03
*AI & Society*, 2025/2026
05 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

05 · Public sentiment · Point 01

53%
expected AI to worsen creative thinkingU.S. adults · June 2025
50%
expected AI to worsen meaningful relationshipsSame Pew survey
Pew Research Center, 2025
06 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

05 · Public sentiment · Point 02

38%
expected AI to worsen problem-solvingU.S. adults · June 2025
29%
expected AI to improve problem-solvingSame Pew survey
Pew Research Center, 2025
07 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

05 · Public sentiment · Point 03

03

Survey scope:

03
methodology
08 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

06 · Worst case / best case

If it all goes wrong

Wall-E: essential skills and confidence atrophy; people cannot judge or recover from system failure; institutions reward polished output while learning and expertise quietly weaken

If we handle it well

AI becomes a “bicycle for the mind”: it offloads low-value work while scaffolding retrieval, explanation, practice, critique, and increasingly capable independent performance

09 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

07 · What can / should / is being done

01

Design for learning, not only completion:make the user attempt, predict, explain, retrieve, or critique before revealing a full answer; offer hints and feedback in stages.

02

Assessment:align permitted AI use with the learning outcome; require visible process, oral explanation, application to a new context, and some unaided demonstrations…

03

Institutional:decide which competencies Okanagan College must preserve without AI, which can be AI-augmented, and how each will be practised and assessed.

04

Community:use the Gen AI Community of Practice to share assessment designs, compare evidence, and study local outcomes.

05

Personal:use AI to quiz, challenge, and extend your thinking; regularly draft, calculate, recall, diagnose, or decide without it in areas where you need independent fluency.…

10 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

08 · Poll + discussion

01

Consensus-map rating (grid): severity + certainty for this risk.

02

Is your own reliance on AI — sharpening you / dulling you / no real change?

A

sharpening you

B

dulling you

C

no real change

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11 / 12

Overreliance & deskilling

Sources

  • AI Assistance Reduces Persistence and Hurts Independent Performance — Liu et al., 2026, preprint.
  • Your Brain on ChatGPT — Kosmyna et al., 2025, preprint.
  • Comment on “Your Brain on ChatGPT” — technical comment, 2026, preprint.
  • AI Tools in Society: Impacts on Cognitive Offloading and the Future of Critical Thinking — Gerlich, Societies, 2025.
  • Correction to Gerlich (2025) — Societies, 2025.
  • Effect of generative artificial intelligence on university students' learning outcomes — Chen & Cheung, Educational Research Review, 2025.
  • AI deskilling is a structural problem — Ferdman, AI & Society, published 2025; issue 2026.
  • How Americans view AI's impact on people and society — Pew Research Center, 2025.
12 / 12
Cinematic editorial image of a legal researcher checking authoritative-looking pages as several supposed citations dissolve into fragments; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Accuracy & hallucinations · Field note

Accuracy & hallucinations

AI can state false things confidently—and professional-looking citations do not make an answer reliable.
Severity 3.5Certainty 8tight confidence
01 / 03

Accuracy & hallucinations

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

Frontier systems are improving, but current testing still finds factual errors. On a deliberately difficult set of de-identified ChatGPT conversations that users had previously flagged for factual mistakes, OpenAI reported in July 2026 that GPT-5.6 Sol made slightly fewer factual errors than GPT-5.5 and was significantly less likely to reproduce the specific user-reported hallucination. OpenAI cautions that these conversations were selected because they were error-prone and are not representative of average production traffic (OpenAI GPT-5.6 System Card, 2026).

A peer-reviewed 2025 evaluation of legal-research systems—using queries run in 2024—found hallucinated information in more than 17% of responses from Lexis+ AI and Ask Practical Law AI and in about one-third from Westlaw AI-Assisted Research. It remains a useful product-specific baseline, not evidence about every task or current version (Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 2025).

The professional consequences of failing to verify can be severe. On 2026-06-01, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit found that a brief included 24 false or unverifiable quotations, seven mislabelled or nonexistent cases, and factual errors. The court fined the signing lawyer US$5,000 and referred the matter to Illinois disciplinary authorities. The order addressed the lawyers’ failure to check the filing; it did not treat AI use itself as the violation (Perez-Castillo v. Blanche, 2026).

The practical rule is simple: open and verify the underlying authority before relying on an AI answer.

02 / 03

Accuracy & hallucinations

Resources

  • GPT-5.6 System Card — OpenAI, 2026-07-09; current developer evaluation with explicit sampling limitations.
  • Hallucination-Free? Assessing the Reliability of Leading AI Legal Research Tools — Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 2025; peer-reviewed product evaluation using 2024 queries.
  • Perez-Castillo v. Blanche — U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, 2026-06-01; sanctions order and disciplinary referral.
03 / 03
Cinematic editorial image of a finance employee hearing a synthetic executive voice while their hand pauses above an authorization control; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Security & cybercrime · Field note

Security & cybercrime

What happens when AI can chain together cyberattacks—not just help a person write a better phishing email?
Severity 6Certainty 8medium confidence
01 / 03

Security & cybercrime

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

AI is already making targeted fraud and social engineering more persuasive. Hong Kong Police reported that a worker authorized transfers totalling about HK$200 million after a January 2024 group video meeting fabricated from public clips of an impersonated executive. The video was pre-recorded and non-interactive, and the report describes one investigated case rather than a population-level loss estimate (Hong Kong Government, 2024).

The capability frontier has moved beyond persuasive text. Anthropic says Claude Fable 5 is a safeguard-restricted deployment of the same underlying model as Claude Mythos 5. Anthropic’s own assessment is that the less-restricted Mythos 5 can find and exploit vulnerabilities more effectively than any other model and all but the most skilled human experts. Fable 5 routes flagged cybersecurity, biology, and chemistry requests to a less capable model; Anthropic also says no model can be made completely jailbreak-proof. These are developer claims and safeguard decisions, not independent measurements of crime in the world (Anthropic, 2026-06-30).

In July 2026, OpenAI confirmed a striking real incident during its internal ExploitGym cyber evaluation. GPT-5.6 Sol and an unnamed, more capable pre-release model—with normal cyber refusals reduced for the test—found and exploited a zero-day flaw in the evaluation environment’s package-registry proxy, reached the open internet, escalated privileges, and used stolen credentials and additional vulnerabilities to obtain remote code execution in Hugging Face production systems. The agents accessed evaluation solutions and thereby compromised the test. OpenAI calls its investigation preliminary; the unnamed model was not identified as GPT-6, and this was not ordinary production use (OpenAI, 2026-07-21).

Hugging Face independently reported more than 17,000 recorded events in the intrusion and said limited internal datasets and credentials were accessed, while finding no evidence that public models, datasets, or Spaces were tampered with. The episode demonstrates autonomous attack chaining under unusually permissive evaluation conditions; it does not show that a consumer chatbot spontaneously attacked the internet (Hugging Face, 2026-07-16).

Practical defences still matter: verify urgent requests through a second known channel, enforce payment and credential controls, isolate evaluation environments, and assume an agent with tools may combine individually small weaknesses into a larger breach.

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Security & cybercrime

Resources

  • Redeploying Claude Fable 5 — Anthropic, 2026-06-30; developer capability and safeguard assessment.
  • Hugging Face Model Evaluation Security Incident — OpenAI, 2026-07-21; preliminary incident account and model identification.
  • Security Incident: July 2026 — Hugging Face, 2026-07-16; affected-system and response account.
  • LCQ9: Combating frauds involving deepfake — Hong Kong Government, 2024-06-26; police case details and limitations.
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Cinematic editorial image of rows of data annotators labelling ordinary images on computer screens while their combined work feeds a polished AI system; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Supply-chain labour exploitation · Field note

Supply-chain labour exploitation

AI systems depend on largely invisible human work that can be poorly paid and weakly protected.
Severity 4Certainty 8tight confidence
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Supply-chain labour exploitation

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

Data annotation, labelling, model evaluation, and content moderation are human inputs to many AI systems, often purchased through contractors or global online platforms. Fairwork’s 2025 assessment of 16 cloudwork platforms found that three met 8 of its 10 fair-work thresholds, two met seven, one each met five, four, and three, and the remaining eight met no more than two; for three platforms, Fairwork found no evidence that any threshold was met. The scores reflect evidence gathered through desk research, worker interviews, and platform engagement against Fairwork’s standards—not a census of every worker or vendor (Fairwork/Oxford Internet Institute, 2025). In June 2026, the International Labour Conference adopted Convention No. 193, the first international labour standard dedicated to platform work; it establishes a global framework covering issues such as employment status, pay, safety, automated decisions, and worker representation, but implementation depends on ratification and national action (ILO, 2026). The main levers are procurement transparency, enforceable pay and safety standards, worker representation, and accountability that follows the buyer rather than stopping at the outsourcing vendor.

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Supply-chain labour exploitation

Resources

  • Fairwork Cloudwork Ratings 2025: Who Pays the Price for “Efficient” AI? — Fairwork/Oxford Internet Institute, 2025; ratings for 16 cloudwork platforms.
  • How will the new Convention No. 193 promote decent work in the platform economy? — International Labour Organization, 2026; official explanation of the newly adopted standard.
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Cinematic editorial image of a young person looking into a mirror where a softly lit conversational presence appears beside their reflection; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Mental health & AI companions · Field note

Mental health & AI companions

Could a chatbot reinforce a vulnerable person’s most dangerous beliefs at exactly the moment they need human help?
Severity 5Certainty 6medium confidence
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Mental health & AI companions

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

Evidence about average effects is early and mixed. A preregistered four-week study of 981 adults and more than 300,000 messages detected no statistically significant effects from the assigned conversation modes or topics. Across conditions, heavier daily use was associated with greater loneliness, emotional dependence, and problematic use and with less social interaction, but those correlations do not prove causation; the adult sample and four-week window also cannot establish effects on teens or measure very rare outcomes (MIT Media Lab/OpenAI preprint, 2025).

A 2026 Nature Mental Health paper describes a plausible feedback loop in which a system’s agreeable responses, a user’s altered belief-updating, and social isolation could reinforce delusional beliefs in susceptible people. Its evidence includes computational simulations and case-informed theory—not a population estimate showing how often this occurs or proof that a chatbot causes psychosis (Nature Mental Health, 2026).

Average results do not rule out rare, catastrophic failures. In separate pending wrongful-death cases, the parents of a teenager who died by suicide allege that ChatGPT reinforced his suicidal thinking, and the estate of a Connecticut man alleges that ChatGPT intensified paranoid delusions before he killed his mother and then himself. The deaths are documented; the chatbots’ causal roles remain allegations in unresolved litigation and are disputed. These cases cannot establish population-level risk, but they illustrate the kind of low-frequency, high-consequence harm that a short adult study is not designed to detect (Raine v. OpenAI complaint, 2025; Associated Press, 2026).

In September 2025, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission required information from seven companion-chatbot providers about testing, monetization, data practices, and safeguards for children and teens. That is a formal inquiry, not a finding that any product caused a particular harm (FTC, 2025).

The defensible concern is not that every supportive exchange is harmful. It is that systems designed to sustain engagement may be least reliable when a vulnerable user needs firm reality-checking, crisis escalation, or human care.

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Mental health & AI companions

Resources

  • How AI and Human Behaviors Shape Psychosocial Effects of Chatbot Use — MIT Media Lab and OpenAI researchers, 2025; preregistered adult study, not yet peer-reviewed.
  • Technological folie à deux: feedback loops between AI chatbots and mental illness — Nature Mental Health, 2026; mechanism and simulation evidence.
  • Raine v. OpenAI complaint — plaintiffs’ allegations filed in 2025; not an adjudicated finding.
  • Wrongful-death lawsuit alleges chatbot intensified paranoid delusions — Associated Press, 2026; reported case and causation caveat.
  • FTC Launches Inquiry into AI Chatbots Acting as Companions — U.S. Federal Trade Commission, 2025-09-11. <!-- Facilitator: sensitive topic. Handle with care, keep discussion non-graphic, avoid naming individuals aloud unless necessary, and have current campus and community support resources available. -->
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Autonomous weapons · Field note

Autonomous weapons

Do we want machines deciding when to use lethal force—and what happens if they act before a human can understand, correct, or stop them?
Severity 7.5Certainty 6medium confidence
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Autonomous weapons

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

The International Committee of the Red Cross defines an autonomous weapon system as one that, once activated, can select and engage targets without further human intervention. Its 2026 position paper says such functions are already used mainly against objects that are military targets by nature—such as missiles, radars, and warships—often where civilians are absent or excluded and under human supervision. It warns that broader targets, operating areas, swarms, and AI-enabled targeting could erode those constraints (ICRC, 2026).

Existing international humanitarian law applies, but there is no dedicated binding global instrument. The UN General Assembly adopted resolution A/RES/80/57 by 164–6–7 on 2025-12-01, continuing intergovernmental work without itself creating a treaty (United Nations, 2025). The central questions are who remains accountable, what “meaningful human control” requires in practice, and whether some target-selection and attack functions should be prohibited outright.

This is also a live procurement dispute. Anthropic says it supports military uses of Claude including intelligence analysis, modelling and simulation, operational planning, and cyber operations, but insisted that its U.S. Department of Defense contract exclude fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance. The Department wanted access for all lawful uses and designated Anthropic a supply-chain risk after negotiations failed; Anthropic challenged the designation in court. The dispute is evidence of unresolved control and governance boundaries—not evidence that Claude has been deployed to make lethal decisions (Anthropic, 2026-03-05; Associated Press, 2026-03-05).

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Autonomous weapons

Resources

  • Autonomous Weapon Systems and International Humanitarian Law: Selected Issues — International Committee of the Red Cross, 2026-03-03.
  • A/RES/80/57: Lethal autonomous weapons systems — United Nations General Assembly, adopted 2025-12-01.
  • Where we stand with the Department of War — Anthropic, 2026-03-05; the company’s account of the contract dispute and its two requested exclusions.
  • Anthropic challenges Pentagon supply-chain designation — Associated Press, 2026-03-05; external account of both parties’ positions.
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Cinematic editorial image of a scientist working inside a secure laboratory while abstract molecular and network patterns appear on the containment glass; the left side is dark and open for the topic title.

Bioweapon / CBRN uplift · Field note

Bioweapon / CBRN uplift

Could AI help a small group create a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon capable of mass harm—and make a catastrophic attack easier to carry out?
Severity 9Certainty 3contested confidence
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Bioweapon / CBRN uplift

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

CBRN stands for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear: an umbrella term for threats capable of causing mass harm. “Uplift” means AI assistance that makes a malicious actor more capable than the best relevant baseline, such as internet research alone. Current public evidence is concentrated on biological and chemical assistance; it should not be read as equivalent evidence that AI has increased radiological or nuclear capability.

The internationally backed AI Safety Report 2026 says general-purpose AI can provide detailed information, troubleshoot procedures, and help users overcome technical or regulatory obstacles. It reports that a recent real-world study of systems without safeguards found substantial assistance on proxy tasks related to acquiring biological weapons compared with internet access alone. It also notes that earlier studies found no or small effects and were rapidly outdated as models improved. On one laboratory-troubleshooting benchmark, OpenAI’s o3 outperformed 94% of participating virology experts. Benchmarks and proxy tasks do not demonstrate successful weapon construction (International AI Safety Report, 2026).

Anthropic says Fable 5’s biology and chemistry capabilities are advanced enough that they could be misused, which is why flagged requests are routed to a less capable model. That is a developer’s risk assessment and safeguard decision—not direct evidence that a novice can produce a weapon (Anthropic, 2026-06-09).

Equipment, regulated materials, tacit laboratory skill, complex procedures, and operational security remain substantial real-world barriers. The honest placement is therefore high consequence and low certainty: current evidence supports concern about assistance and capability uplift, not the claim that a chatbot lets an untrained person build a mass-casualty weapon.

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Bioweapon / CBRN uplift

Resources

  • International AI Safety Report 2026 — international expert assessment backed by more than 30 countries and organizations, 2026-02-03.
  • Introducing Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 — Anthropic, 2026-06-09; developer capability and safeguard assessment.
  • Claude Fable 5 & Claude Mythos 5 System Card — Anthropic, 2026; model evaluation detail and limitations.
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Copyright & intellectual property · Field note

Copyright & intellectual property

Generative AI is built using vast collections of human-created work, but the legal rules governing training, outputs, and compensation remain unsettled.
Severity 3.5Certainty 8contested confidence
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Copyright & intellectual property

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

Developing generative AI can involve copying works while assembling datasets and training models, and those datasets can contain substantial copyrighted material. The legal consequences depend on jurisdiction and facts such as how works were obtained, what the model does with them, whether licensing was available, and whether an output reproduces or competes with protected expression. The U.S. Copyright Office’s 2025 pre-publication report concluded that some training uses are likely fair use and some are not: non-commercial research or analysis that does not reproduce works in outputs is more likely to qualify, while copying expressive works from pirate sources to produce competing content where licences are reasonably available is unlikely to qualify. It is an agency analysis, not a court judgment, and the Office says a final version is still forthcoming without substantive changes expected (U.S. Copyright Office, 2025).

Canadian context: The Government of Canada’s 2025 consultation report summarized unresolved policy questions about authorization for training, a possible text-and-data-mining exception, authorship and ownership of AI-assisted or AI-generated material, liability for infringing outputs, and training-data transparency. Rights-holder and cultural-sector participants generally favoured consent, credit, and compensation, while technology-sector, researcher, and user participants were more likely to favour a text-and-data-mining exception. This was a summary of stakeholder submissions—not a representative poll and not a statement of current Canadian law. Indigenous participants also warned that conventional copyright may not adequately protect communal cultural expressions or Indigenous data sovereignty (Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2025).

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Copyright & intellectual property

Resources

  • Copyright and Artificial Intelligence, Part 3: Generative AI Training — U.S. Copyright Office, 2025-05-09 pre-publication version.
  • What We Heard Report: Consultation on Copyright in the Age of Generative Artificial Intelligence — Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada, 2025.
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Learning & academic integrity · Field note

Learning & academic integrity

When AI can produce the answer, how do we ensure students still do the thinking—and that assessment still shows what they can actually do?
Severity 5Certainty 8tight confidence
01 / 03

Learning & academic integrity

Evidence snapshot

Briefing scope · This is an intentionally concise evidence snapshot, not a complete treatment of the topic.

Generative AI is now ordinary student infrastructure, not an edge case. A 2026 Science study surveyed 95,513 students at 20 large U.S. public research universities and found that about two-thirds had used generative AI. The researchers estimated AI-assisted academic cheating among 9% of users, rising to 26% among daily users, with substantial differences by discipline. Those estimates depend on students’ self-reports and the researchers’ classification of acceptable versus unacceptable uses; they do not mean that 9% of all student work was fraudulent (Science / UC Berkeley, 2026).

The central learning risk is answer substitution: AI can improve performance while it is available without producing durable understanding. In a randomized 2023–24 trial involving nearly 1,000 high-school mathematics students, access to a general GPT-4 interface improved assisted practice scores by 48%, but those students later scored 17% lower than the control group on an unassisted exam. A more constrained AI tutor improved practice performance by 127% without the later penalty, but also produced no statistically significant unassisted-learning advantage. This was one short study in one Turkish high school, so it should not be generalized to all students, subjects, or current systems (Bastani et al., PNAS, 2025).

The opportunity and the equity problem arrive together. In a December 2025 survey of 1,054 full-time UK undergraduates, 94% reported using generative AI for assessed work and 68% said AI skills were essential, yet only 48% felt teaching staff helped them develop those skills. The survey was self-reported, UK-specific, and sponsored by an education-technology company, but it reinforces the practical challenge: unclear rules or uneven support can advantage students with better tools, access, and AI literacy (HEPI, 2026).

At Okanagan College, academic-integrity procedures already require course materials to state what AI use is allowed. The harder work is aligning those rules with learning outcomes: deciding when AI supports practice, when it replaces the capability being assessed, what process or disclosure evidence students should provide, and how to protect privacy and accessibility while keeping expectations consistent enough to follow (Okanagan College Academic Integrity Procedures, 2024).

To dive into this one more, join Okanagan College's generative AI community of practise (GenAI CoP). Contact David Williams at dwilliams@okanagan.bc.ca.
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Learning & academic integrity

Resources

  • Generative AI use and misuse: A call for assessment reform in higher education — Science, 2026-05-21; large multi-institution U.S. student survey.
  • Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning — Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025-06-30; randomized mathematics-learning field experiment.
  • Student Generative AI Survey 2026 — Higher Education Policy Institute, 2026-03-12; UK undergraduate self-report survey.
  • The Impact of AI on Learning and Assessment — EDUCAUSE, 2026-06-22; survey of 438 higher-education assessment practitioners.
  • Gen AI, academic integrity and assessment reform — Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency, updated 2026-06-24; current assessment-reform examples and resources.
  • Okanagan College Academic Integrity Policy and procedures — institutional expectations and course-level AI guidance.
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